Iraq today stands at a crossroads. People may argue about decisions taken in 2003, or earlier, but such arguments will not help the Iraqi people or shed light on Iraq’s future. What’s done is done. The question I am interested in is where does Iraq stand today and what do the future hold from the country?
The nightmarish violence of previous has abated but Iraq remains an exceptionally violent country. Yesterday the US Defence Department reported that Iraq remained locked into a communal struggle for power and resources. Indeed 572 Iraqi civilians were killed in September, 3% of these deaths were attributable to US forces, while the rest of the deaths were the result of Iraqi on Iraqi violence. In provinces handed over to Iraqi security forces low-level violence has continued between Sunni and Shia, Sunni and Sunni, as well as Shia and Shia. Although civillian deaths have been reduced by 50% since last year it is clear that Iraq remains a nation divided along religious and as militia lines.
Although the Iraq remains violent the civilian death rate has steadily declined since last year and Baghdad is now a largely peaceful city. The large suicide bombs and slaughter of Sunnis by the Mahdi Army has stopped almost completely. The violence now largely consists of shootings and roadside bombs aimed at Iraqi Army patrols. The surge has been hailed for its success in reducing the violence and undoubtedly General Petraeus’ tactics enabled US forces to take on the militants and work with ordinary Iraqis. Yet the two most critical factors were the establishment of Sunni Awakening Councils and the wholesale defeat of the Mahdi Army by the Iraqi Army. Furthermore the insane level of violence seen 2007 simply could not continue forever and was always going abate once Iraqis realised they were dragging themselves into the abyss.
Whatever the reason the containment of the insurgency gave Iraqi politicians breathing space to bury their differences and promote national reconciliation. US military leaders have consistently stressed that the security situation is fragile and reversible. Yet while the violence has been contained the US has been able to start the long term drawdown of its troops and transfer responsibility for security to Iraq. The Iraqi Government has grown markedly in stature and in recent weeks it has negotiated as an equal with the US over troop deployments, it has negotiated the first foreign oil deal since Saddam and signed a deal with foreign investors to rebuild its water supply infrastructure. In short Iraq stands ready to take its future into its own hands and while there is reason to be optimistic, the country still faces enormous challenges.
Today was the day that responsibility for the salaries for the Sunni Sons of Iraq was transferred from the beleaguered American taxpayer to the Iraqi National Government. If the Sons of Iraq cannot be integrated back into Iraqi society then frankly Iraq does not have a future. There 100,000 members of the Sons of Iraq and an estimated 95% of them had links to Al Qaeda in Iraq. The Shia led Government has proved to be suspicious about this assortment of ex-Ba’athists and insurgents and it is steadfastly refusing to integrated the militia into the Iraqi Army. The Iraqi Government has a $79 billion budget surplus and it could pay the wages of the Sons of Iraq many times over without making a dent in its coffers. Its reluctance to extend the hand of forgiveness to the Sunnis could be fatal for Iraq’s future and the Shia must bite the bullet for the sake of their country. Otherwise Iraq could slip inexorably back to civil war.
The Pentagon states that Iranian influence in the form of funding, training and arms supplies to Shia militias represents “the most significant long-term threat to stability in Iraq”. In the spring of this year Iraqi and US troops virtually destroyed the Mahdi Army as a fighting force and evicted it from Sadr City, Basra and Maysan Province. Meanwhile the increasingly self-assured Nouri al-Maliki out-manoeuvred the group’s political wing and al-Sadr himself was forced to flee to Iran. If the security situation in Iraq deteriorates, however, the firebrand cleric remains poised to re-impose his policies of ethnic cleansing and hard line Islamism.
Al Qaeda in Iraq the group that has murdered thousands of Iraqi civilians suffered a decisive defeat during 2007. Its insane policy of hard-line Islamism was emphatically rejected by Iraqi Sunnis and the group’s main area of operations now restricted to Mosul and the wild Diayala Province. The group retains the it’s deadly potential however, indeed it has used 15 teenage girls as suicide bombers with lethal effect this year alone. Al Qaeda has been defeated and although the group will never gain the power it had in 2006, no army in the world can stop a hard core of fanatics from fighting on. Iraq, like the rest of the world, will suffer suicide bombings for many years to come.
Provided the Shia-led Government swallows its pride and integrates the Sons of Iraq into its army then I do not believe the country will return to the madness of 2006. The most likely scenario is that a low level Columbian or Algerian style insurgency will continue for several more years to come at least. In recent months the Iraqi Army has grown in strength and proficiency and should be able to contain a low level efficiency with minimal foreign help. It has already routed the Mahdi Army and taken on responsibility for the once hopeless Anbar province. The recent slaughter of 35 Iraqi soldiers in an Al Qaeda ambush shows that it still has a lot to learn, however.
But let’s suppose that the insurgency is contained, what other challenges does Iraq face? The Pentagon states that “Security incidents are now at the lowest levels in over four-and-a-half years, instilling in the Iraqi people a sense of normalcy that permits them to engage in personal, religious, and civic life without an inordinate threat of violence,". Indeed the fact that many Iraqis can now lead lives free from the threat of violence is empirically clear to anyone who monitors reports from the country. For many Iraqis the main problems are not security but rather the country’s terrible infrastructure and its massive unemployment. The Iraqi Government is flush with oil money, it has a $79 billion budget surplus and billions more sitting in an American bank. In short it has more money than it can spend. The Government must act to improve the country’s water and electricity supply and its oil infrastructure. A major deal has been signed with a French company to improve water supplies but more must be done. Furthermore the Government must act to break the massive reliance on state sector employment which has cursed many Arab economies. Government grants for small businesses and entrepreneurs is one decidedly simple suggestion.
Another threat to Iraq is corruption; the country is listed as the third most corrupt in the world and many Government departments are run as private thiefdoms by Shia gangsters. Anyone who has read Paul Collier’s book ‘The Bottom Billion’ will recognise that Iraq’s massive oil wealth could act as a curse rather than a blessing. Corruption, Dutch disease, bad Governance, coups and civil wars often plague poor countries ‘blessed’ with natural resource wealth. But as well as ‘God gift’, Iraq has also been handed the secular gift if democracy which if pursued correctly may act to curb the most pernicious effects of corruption.
So let’s imagine that Iraq doesn’t alienate the Sons of Iraq, Shia and Sunni are reconciled and Al Qaeda and the Mahdi Militia remain isolated. If the Government acts to restore the country’s infrastructure and resist the traps that come with oil wealth then Iraq may have a bright future. In a sign of recent progress an Iraqi exile unveiled plans to build a multi-billion dollar honeymoon resort on Al A’arass Island in the middle of the Tigris in Baghdad. If, one day, the Al A’arass resort is built then it will surely be sign that Iraq has at last solved its many problems.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/7636952.stm
http://abcnews.go.com/International/Story?id=5926340&page=1
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/01/opinion/main4491521.shtml?source=RSSattr=Opinion_4491521
