I meant to do this piece a few weeks ago but never really got round to it, since then every man and his dog written about this subject. I guess I’ll have to scoop everyone else and do a pre-emptive post on Bush’s legacy instead. Anyway here’s what I feel are the main challenges and priorities for President-elect Obama.
1. THE ECONOMY
The world economy is slowing for the first time since 1989 and, more importantly for Obama, America is entering a period of recession. Not only is the US President the Commander-in-Chief but he also expected to be in the country’s Economist-in Chief and one of his resumed duties (if he wants to be re-elected) is to ensure the continued economic growth that Americans have come to see as their birth right. Therefore the economy must be Obama’s top priority, yet this is one area in which there is only so much he can actually do. After a slow start global leaders seem to have made the right decisions as they prepare their slowing economies for a ‘soft’ crash landing and so far they have avoided the mistakes (reduced liquidity, protectionism) that led to the Great Depression. Certainly the economic summit pencilled in for January will be a good opportunity for world leaders to plan a co-ordinated fiscal stimulus package for the global economy. World leaders will be looking to Obama to provide leadership and he must make sure that all the major economies agree to a co-ordinated fiscal stimulus package, otherwise the idea won’t work. Obama should also exploit the influence he will wield during his honeymoon period to encourage China and the Gulf states to invest in the IMF and to promote movement on cross-border regulation and a stabilisation in oil prices. However recessions are inevitable and the best Obama can really hope to do is to make the crash landing as soft as possible and ensure the economy is well prepared for the recovery projected to take place in 2010. There is a real danger in Obama trying to do too much to rescue the economy before it is ready. Both Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi have signalled their support for a multi-billion dollar bail out of America’s stricken car industry. This would be a profoundly stupid act. In the 1970s Labour pumped millions of pounds of taxpayers’ money into the failing British Leyland. The problem with British Leyland was that it was rotten to the core and nobody wanted to buy its shambolic products, as a result the company haemorrhaged taxpayers’ money while more productive sectors of the economy were strangled through want of investment. In the same way the American car industry is in decline because is uncompetitive and consumers have stopped buying gas guzzling vehicles. By bailing out the automobile producers Obama would be hanging a millstone from the neck of the American economy, it would also increase the already worrying national debt and prompt foreign producers to increase their tariffs, further hindering global growth. Of course bailing out the car industry is a crowd pleaser especially after public disquiet over the banking bailout, however, the difference is that the taxpayer has bought a stake in the banks that will probably reap a profit, furthermore bank failures are contagious and the collapse of the banking system would cause the collapse of the ‘real’ economy. Failures in the automobile industry are not contagious and they are not crucial to economic recovery but I fully expect Obama to press ahead with the bail out in January. That’s democracy for you I guess.
2. IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN
For the first time since Nixon a U.S. president will inherit an overseas war, in fact Obama will inherit two of them. However Iraq, which was the defining issue of the 2004 election, is not quite the challenge it once was. After a year of tough negotiations the Iraqi cabinet this week approved a State of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with the US. This is an understanding that US forces will withdraw from Iraqi cites by 2009 and that all US combat troops will be out of Iraq by 2011. Obama produced his own timetable for a US withdrawal but he would be well advised to take the advice of US commanders and Iraqi leaders and follow events on the ground. By 2011 Iraq will almost certainly be free of foreign forces, until then it is hugely reliant on the American Army for combat support, intelligence, training, equipment, air cover, transport, logistics and funding. It would be unwise and dangerous for Obama to pull out US troops too quickly, whatever the temptations or pressures to do so. Iraq will need US political and economic support for a long time to come but unless the insurgency returns with a vengeance, Obama will still be able to go into the 2012 election with all US combat troops out of Iraq.
As the Iraq War draws down so the Afghan War drags on and the aims of the war start to look diffuse and hopeless. This week in Afghanistan a dozen school girls were sprayed with acid for the crime of claiming an education, it is unclear who the attackers were. There are too few coalition troops in Afghanistan and unless Obama can encourage his fans Merkel and Sarkozy to share the risks, America will have to deploy formations from Iraq to Afghanistan as soon as events allow. However the Taliban cannot be defeated militarily and Afghanistan is too poor to be able to raise a big army in the way that Iraq has done. Indeed Afghanistan cannot even afford to maintain its current army of 80,000 corrupt and largely incompetent soldiers. Therefore Obama will need to work out a strategy that encourages a political solution to the conflict. I would favour a divide and rule strategy that would allow more moderate elements of the Taliban back into Afghan politics provided they renounce political violence, accept democracy and the rule of secular law, denounce Al Qaeda and accept the presence of non-Muslims in Afghanistan. This is, of course, easier said than done but there are signs that Mullah Omar and Hamid Karzai are ready talk once a strategic objective has been established America has vast resources it can mobilise to achieve that end. The coalition would then be free to isolate or destroy the hard core elements of the insurgency which would lead to stabilisation and possible a drawdown of troops, although I fear that this is unlikely to happen within the next decade.
Pakistan will also be a major headache for Obama as the country continues to lurch towards bankruptcy and an Iraq-style insurgency. The President will want to strengthen ties with the civilian Government, push for a peace deal with India and encourage increased international aid. However it is unclear what role the Islamist infiltrated ISI play in Afghanistan and the country continues to provide sanctuary for Al Qaeda and Islamist terrorists. Whilst Obama will need to encourage Pakistan to continue its own offensive against the Taliban I would also strongly defend the US air strikes on terrorist targets within Pakistan. Al Qaeda represents an unacceptable threat to global security (that includes Pakistan) and although air strikes have obvious and painful drawbacks they are legitimate acts of self-defence. However, Obama must get used to walking a diplomatic tightrope when dealing with Pakistan.
3. ISRAEL, PALESTINE AND THE WAR ON TERROR
Condi Rice made 22 trips in two years to Israel/Palestine but came away with nothing, yet there is a chance, just a chance, that Obama could help orchestrate a lasting peace across the Middle East. In 2002 Saudi Arabia offered Israel a permanent peace, a veto on the return of Palestinian refugees and diplomatic recognition from the Muslim World if it withdrew to pre-1967 borders. The proposal seems to be back on the table and the Sunday Times reported both that Kadima leader Tzipi Livni backed the idea and that Obama commented to an aide “Israel would be crazy to refuse a deal that offered peace with the Muslim World”. I not convinced about the veracity of the Sunday Times’ report but I do see an opportunity for Obama to produce a lasting peace. Former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has spoken about withdrawal from the West Bank and I believe that with concerted pressure from Obama the tough but pragmatic Tzipi Livni could be persuaded to make a substantial pull out. I can’t envisage a full Israeli withdrawal from the disputed territory and Obama would have to be extremely tough on both sides in order to hammer out a lasting deal. Yet with both Israel and Fatah ready to talk, negotiations already taking place with Syria over the Golan Heights and initiatives from Saudi Arabia it is possible, however unlikely, that Obama could pull off some kind of ‘Grand Bargain’. If it worked it would be the diplomatic coup of the century but he will need to move fast. The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is already starting to disintegrate and if another intifada is launched, the chance of peace will be scuppered for another five years.
One would hope that peace in Palestine would assuage anti-Americanism on the Arab street, yet contrary to popular belief it would not remove the threat from al Qaeda and Islamist terrorism. For a start Islamist terrorists attack and kill for more Muslims than they do Westerners. Secondly they believe in the supremacy of 'true believers' and to re-instate their idea of the Caliphate by destroying Western influence, the Shia and those Sunnis that oppose them. Islamism is an aggressive, imperialist, expansionist force and it would pose a threat to global security even with the most timid and meek US foreign policy. Furthermore Islamist groups are opposed to the very existence of the Israeli state and even after a peace deal they would pursue its destruction. Therefore the struggle against Islamist terror will continue; I wrote an post on how to win the ‘War on Terror’ several months ago and my views remain the same so I won’t repeat them in detail. The most important point is that Obama follows a divide and rule strategy, i.e. he maintains military/legal pressure on the al Qaeda leadership whilst at the same time disrupting the flow of new recruits to the organisation. Obama does appear to understand this and has pledged to close Guantanamo very soon after taking office, though is unclear what he will do with inmates that cannot be tried in the US but cannot be deported to their home countries for fear that they will be tortured. I would also hope that very early on in his presidency Obama makes a trip to the Middle East and makes a speech (ideally in Cairo or Riyadh) offering the hand of friendship to the Muslim World. This would have the very real effect of helping to atone for the perceived faults of the Bush years and start the process of offering a constructive alternative to Islamist propaganda about the West. The spectre of an al Qaeda attack on America will hang over Obama’s first term and perhaps for many years after that, indeed al Zawahiri has already taunted the president and labelled him a ‘house negro’. Al Qaeda will hope that a terrorist atrocity will goad Obama into blundering into the Middle East like a dinosaur into a tar pit, just as Bush did, for Jihad against the ‘crusaders’ is the group’s life blood and its best recruitment sergeant. Yet Barack Obama is possessed of a preternatural calm and if he has to take the 3 a.m. call, I am confident he would make the right decision.
Sadly the list of challenges Obama must deal with goes on to include Global Warming, suspected Iranian nuclear proliferation, North Korean nuclear proliferation, global trade, Darfur, global poverty, global disease and a host of other problems. However I’ll give him a chance to deal with the first three problems before I come back to the rest.